Nationale EMN Konferenz 2020 „Prognosen zur zukünftigen Entwicklung globaler Migration“

Veranstalter: EMN Österreich

29. September 2020, online

Prognosen zur zukünftigen Entwicklung globaler Migration

29. September 2020, 09:00 – 17:00, Wien
Online Konferenz


This page is only available in English


Researchers as well as decision makers at EU and national level are interested in rendering the magnitude and nature of future migration developments more predictable, enabling them to recognize opportunities and respond to challenges. Migration forecasts, scenarios and early warning systems are important for improving our understanding of global migration. Predicting migration trends is an inherently complex task, however. No single approach can capture all relevant aspects of migration and a careful interpretation of results is required to avoid misguided conclusions.

In this context, the conference provided a critical reflection and a differentiated understanding of future migration scenarios and proactive migration policies. The speakers included international migration researchers, national and European policy makers with experience in developing and applying migration forecasts and scenarios. Together with 180 virtual participants they discussed how policy makers can make use of predictive methodologies.

Some of the conference presentations are also reproduced in a Migration Policy Practice Special Issue published in January 2021. 


Opening and Keynote Speech 

  • Peter Webinger, Director-General for Migration, Federal Ministry of the Interior, Austria
  • Marian Benbow Pfisterer, Head of the Country Office for Austria, IOM
  • Elizabeth Collett, Special Adviser for Policy and Strategy to the Director General, IOM

Migration Forecasts and Scenarios: Assessing the State of Play of Predictive Migration Research


Panel 1: Snapshots of Migration Predictions

A comprehensive understanding of the nature of future migration requires a multitude of perspectives and a comparative analysis of findings generated by forecasts, narrative scenario studies and big data analyses. This session provides insights into key findings of recent forecasts and scenario studies.

Panel 2: Predicting Migration and the Implications on Europe

This session identifies common components of future migration trends to Europe and challenges of accurately predicting migration, particularly in view of unexpected events such as COVID-19.

Migration Predictions and Proactive Migration Management


Panel 3: The Nexus between Predictions and Policy Making

The results of migration forecasts and scenarios do not easily translate into policy recommendations and decision-making, with uncertainty as an important challenge. This session explores the extent to which predictive methods have been used to inform policy decisions and how policy has influenced migration forecasting.   

Panel 4: The Future of Migration Forecasting

A concluding panel explores different options to prepare for future migration patterns to Europe. Special attention is placed on effective communication strategies, which are important to translate forecasts and scenarios into sustainable migration management. Panelists also discuss the role of forecasting in managing the external migration policy dimension.

  • The Way Forward for National and European Policy Making
    Tobias Molander, Head of International Migration, Federal Ministry of the Interior, Austria